Financing the Transition: From Innovation to Scale

Since the 2023 Summit, global conflicts have continued, generative AI has launched into the market in a big way, investors are moving away from risk, and the world surpassed 8 billion people as climate change continues to pose risks to meeting the needs of our growing population. The trend of moving from an age of moderation to volatility continued, resulting in widening spread of the Volatility Index (VIX) since 2019 with commodity sectors being significantly affected. 

We believe the next thirty years will not be like the last thirty years. Humanity is experiencing significant macro shifts including: increased digitalization, which will lead to higher energy demands; a widening demographic deficit including both a 10 billion person planet and an aging workforce that will have implications on healthcare and pension liabilities and productivity; continued geopolitical volatility; and a highly complex capital markets environment.

In a future where we will require significantly more resources to power our economies, our perspective is that it’s imperative to understand these trends at a systems level, particularly the first-, second-, and third-order frictions and implications, to achieve a successful transition across commoditized sectors.

In light of these trends, we believe we have the opportunity -leveraging advancements in physics, biology, and technology -to create a 21st century commodity system that is more efficient, more affordable, less volatile, and more resilient to external shocks like geopolitical and climate. 

Given the interconnectedness of food and agriculture, oceans and energy, our view is that a successful transition will require operating at the seams between sectors and bringing forward a unique set of ingredients to bear.